Arizona State +2.5 2.2% Play
This play is a late release, because I was holding out for a 3, but only one shop has it, but I feel comfortable with Arizona State here, and think they pull the upset. Stanford has a lot of weaknesses right now with their only strength being the QB play of KJ Costello. Costello, however has been sacked a lot ranking 83rd in sack % for a team that passes the ball 55% of the time that is not a good stat. What makes it worse is the fact that Stanford has gone against bad pass rush teams's ranking 74.8 in sack % on average. Well, Arizona State and their unique 3-3-5 defense is fast, and they get to the QB ranking 22nd in sack %, and at home they are even more dangerous.
Last year Stanford needed 307 yards rushing and they still only won 34-24 at home against Arizona State. This year Bryce Love won't be 100%, and they are not going to push him, and they rank 125th in yards per carry. That's with what was one of the best offensive lines, but they are allowing too many plays behind the line of scrimmage. Arizona State ranks 46th in rushing defense, and if they can do what they typically do at home at night, in 82 degrees they should come out victorious. Also, don't sleep on Arizona State's offense, the two offensive guys that were questionable in Wilkins and Harry will play here. Worth mentioning is the fact that both teams are off extra rest, but Stanford last year was awful in this situation going 0-3 ATS and 2-3 straight up. Their only win was a 15-14 win on a Thursday night at Oregon State, yuck.
